An Updated Thesis of the 2024 Presidential Election
Voters punish perceived indecision and incompetence
In November, I wrote that I believed that inflation was the primary reason that Donald Trump won a second term to the presidency. With more information coming to light, I am going to amend that theory.
While inflation was a significant factor in the election, it was part of a bigger narrative that worked to the detriment of Kamala Harris’ candidacy: the perception of the public that Joe Biden was not up to the job of being President. While this was somewhat offset when Biden dropped out and was replaced with Harris, the Democratic Party was still burdoned with the image of being indecisive in a world where it appeared that elected Democrats were not in control.
The root of this theory comes from the fact that Joe Biden’s approval rating was positive from the time he took office until late August of 2021, when the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was widely viewed by the public as being poorly-handled, even though withdrawing was largely popular. Biden’s approval had already been sliding that summer as inflation started ticking up and the Delta variant of Covid-19 surged. Later on in the Biden tenure, his approval fell as migrant encounters at the U.S-Mexico border increased in late 2023.
In addition to Biden approval falling after events where he was perceived as not being in control, it increased following times in which he was perceived as showing decisive leadership. During the summer of 2022, Biden had a series of opportunities to show that he could be a competent and decisive leader, such as the passage of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act and coming out strongly in favor of reproductive rights following the overturning of Roe vs. Wade. Between July 14 and September 30 of that year, Biden approval rose a net 5.2 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s approval tracker.
As Democrats work to mount opposition to Donald Trump and rebuild their party after suffering a defeat, it is worth remembering that voters will give politicians a pass on certain policies that they do not align with if they perceive that the politician will take strong and decisive action about the issues that they care about. Joe Biden may have been uniquely unable to act in this manner due to having lost a step or two in his long years of public service, and a younger Democrat might have been able to articulate a stronger message. But it is also worth noting that following public opinion is not always the be-all, end all; strictly doing so can come off as trying to satisfy everyone, which can come off as looking inauthentic and lacking any ideals.