Examining the chances of Allan Kittleman's Comeback Bid
Moderation was once able to win over large amounts of crossover votes, but will it still work in an increasingly blue Howard County?
For the first post here, I will be looking at an election close to home, both figuratively and literally.
Background
Owing in large part to its location between Washington and Baltimore, Howard County has become one of the most well-off jurisdictions in the country. Once a rural and agricultural county, the development of Columbia and suburban expansion has turned it into a hub of the arts and culture.
Allan Kittleman is an example of the kind of Republican that used to be the backbone of suburban strength in Maryland: socially moderate, pro-business, and acutely aware of local issues. The son of longtime state legislator and co-founder of the Howard County NAACP, Robert, he began his own political career in 1998, when he won a seat on the Howard County Council. He served there until 2004, when Robert Kittleman passed away while serving in the state senate. Allan was appointed to the seat to replace him, and served in that position for two 4-year terms. From 2008 to 2011, he served as the Senate Minority Leader, resigning the position when his support for same-sex marriage put him at odds with his caucus. In 2014, Kittleman was elected Howard County Executive, becoming only the second Republican elected to the position since Howard switched to a charter form of government in 1969. Four years later, he was swept out of office by the anti-Donald Trump-fueled Democratic wave, which was particularly strong in Howard County. After taking a position in Governor Larry Hogan’s cabinet in late 2018, Kittleman announced on September 5, 2021 that he would be running to reclaim his old position.
Fundamentals
So what are the odds that Kittleman can successfully make a comeback bid? To start, let’s take a look at the past 2 presidential elections:
Howard was deep-blue at the federal level in 2014 and has only gotten bluer since. Partisan polarization has also gotten stronger at the local level. However, Allan Kittleman is not Donald Trump, and has an established brand locally. Let’s look at his unsuccessful re-election bid in 2018:
Even though he lost, he was still the best-performing Republican in Howard that year, aside from Governor Larry Hogan, who was winning re-election easily against a weak opponent. While incumbency helped, Kittleman’s crossover support did not completely collapse.
Now let’s take a look at voter registration numbers over recent years:
When Kittleman first won in 2014, partisan registration was 94,860 Democrats, 56,346 Republicans and 44,266 unaffiliateds. When Kittleman was defeated in 2018, it was 110,360 Democrats, 56,053 Republicans and 49,410 unaffiliateds. In the latest registration report, which was July of 2021, there were 120,458 Democrats, 50,681 Republicans and 54,509 unaffiliateds.
Between November 2014 and July 2021, Republicans went from 28% of the eligible electorate to just 22%, while Democrats went from 48% to 53%. Unaffiliateds went from 22% to 24%. While Kittleman has demonstrated the ability to win crossover voters, the terrain has gotten significantly tougher in terms of registration.
Bottom Line
While he can take some comfort from his strong performance in defeat, the dynamics of a rematch would be different. If history is any guide, it would be against him; a Republican has not defeated an incumbent Democrat in Howard since 1990. And the county has changed dramatically both politically and demographically since then, almost entirely the the benefit of Democrats. The Republican Party brand has been badly damaged among young and well-educated voters due to Donald Trump’s strong grip on the party. Maryland Matters’ Josh Kurtz recently wrote that Kittleman’s entrance into the race said a lot about the 2022 political environment, and while that may well come to fruition nationally, this era of strong polarization gives the dominant party in an area like Howard a strong cushion.
My initial rating for this race is Likely Democratic.