Final Calls for the 2024 Elections

Uncertainty looms large

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Electoral College

Senate

House

Presidential Analysis

In the final hours of the campaign, it feels as if the race is a coin flip. And yet, there is a very real possibility that the outcome is not particularly close in a relative sense. Swing state polls have consistently had all seven battlegrounds (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) within the margin of error. It would not take a lot for either candidate to win all of them narrowly through a normal-sized polling error. The widely-respected Iowa pollster Ann Selzer, released a poll showing Kamala Harris leading 47 to 44 in the state, a shock to poll observers. While I have doubts that the Vice President will ultimately win Iowa, the fact that she is in this good of a position tells me that she is likely favored in neighboring Wisconsin, which means she is very likely favored nationally. For those of you who are not familiar with the Selzer poll in the past, here are the poll results vs the final result in Iowa over the last four presidential elections:

With this track record, I find it difficult to not at least believe there is some truth to the poll. My personal theory is that Harris may get to 47 percent, but Trump consolidates the undecided voters in the poll. With all that being said, I will get on to the true battlegrounds.

Since Harris replaced Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, I have believed that her easiest path to winning was sweeping the three northern tier states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin along with winning Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, which would put her at exactly 270 electoral votes. Conversely, Trump’s path to winning would be winning the sunbelt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina while picking off one of the northern tier states. Based on late polling and how the campaigns have behaved in the final week, I think that Harris is a slight favorite in all three northern tier states, though I remain most uncertain about Pennsylvania of the three.

In the sunbelt, both campaigns have paid a lot of attention to North Carolina in the final week. In a neutral national environment, North Carolina would be expected to vote for Trump narrowly, so I have reason to think that the Harris campaign believes that they are well-positioned there. Siena College, one of the most well-regarded polls in the industry, also released a poll showing Harris up by 3 in the state. While North Carolina has been a tease for Democrats in the past, the momentum appears to be on Harris’ side in the state, making me come to the conclusion that she is a narrow favorite in the Tar Heel state.

Arizona has been Trump’s strongest swing state in the polls for much of the cycle, and it is not completely clear to me why. It has been close enough that I think Harris still has a shot, but the data points to Trump being favored.

Similar to Arizona, Trump has been stronger in polling in Georgia. Harris has had a couple good recent polls here, possibly picking up late momentum, though I am falling on the average here, which Trump leads.

Finally, Nevada might be the most unpredictable state of this election. Having an economy that was hit especially hard by the pandemic, the state still has not completely recovered from it. On paper, it would be ripe for a backlash against the incumbent party, but the state has a recent history of underestimating Democrats in polling and the polling average is close enough that I think Harris will eke out a win here. And to fully disclose, I came to this conclusion prior to the Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston releasing his final call.

Senate Analysis

The Senate has not been as exciting to watch for me. Only the senate races in Montana and Ohio have been particularly of interest. Both are states that Donald Trump is expected to win where incumbent Democrats are attempting to hold on through their personal brands. I am expecting that Republicans will win a bare 51-49 senate majority.

In Ohio, Senator Sherrod Brown faces Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. Brown has previously run in electoral environments that have favored Democrats, so this race was expected to be his toughest. Although I remain wary of Ohio polling, which has oftentimes underestimated Republicans in recent cycles, I think Brown is the slight favorite, mostly due to his decision to run ads early in the cycle while Moreno was busy in a contested primary.

The same cannot be said in Montana, where Senator Jon Tester appears to be an underdog. His opponent, Republican Tim Sheehy, did not face a contested primary, and ran ads early on defining himself as a businessman who created jobs. While I would not count Tester out, he faces significant headwinds in a state where Donald Trump is likely to win by around 15 percent.

For the other competitive races, Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin, I am banking on who wins the state in the presidential election to carry their respective nominees across the finish line, with the exception of Arizona because of a large gap in candidate quality. Of the above races, Nebraska has been interesting because of an independent candidate named Dan Osborn has been polling remarkably close to incumbent Republican Deb Fischer. However, I have picked Fischer as the favorite due to past instances where the minority party has stood down to allow a third-party candidate to run in their place. While candidates like this sometimes get close, I am inclined not to believe they can win until they actually do it.

House Analysis

Similar to many of the senate races, I expect the outcome of who controls the house largely to which presidential candidate wins nationally. I am projecting that Democrats regain the house with a six-seat majority.

The bulk of Democratic gains will likely come from New York and California, where Republicans are defending several congressional districts that Joe Biden carried in 2020. Kamala Harris will likely carry many of the districts, giving incumbent Republicans headwinds to run against.

Elsewhere in the country, another race I will be watching particularly closely is Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district, where Republican incumbent Scott Perry is facing Democrat Janelle Stelson, a former local news anchor. The Harrisburg-area district has been trending to the left in the last few cycles and an early October poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research had Stelson and Kamala Harris leading in the district. While polls are just a snapshot in time, the momentum appears to be with Democrats here.

Democrats however, may still lose a couple seats. For instance, I have Marie Glusenkamp Perez, who represents a Republican-trending district in southwest Washington losing to Republican Joe Kent, mostly due the fact that she is a freshman incumbent who is not as well-defined and I believe that the turnout of a presidential cycle might be too much for her to overcome in a seat that is likely to vote for Trump.

Final Disclaimer

A general disclaimer that none of these predictions I am fully confident about as of this writing. The data available shows that this is likely going to be the closest election in decades, and when it is this close, it feels something like a crapshoot predicting these. Whatever happens, I feel like I made these predictions according to my best knowledge and judgement.