Maryland's New Congressional Districts
After a legal fight, Governor Hogan and the Maryland General Assembly have come to a compromise
In March, a Maryland judge ruled the congressional map that the Maryland General Assembly approved in December unconstitutional, calling it the “product of extreme partisan gerrymandering.” The thrown-out map maintained the seven Democratic-leaning districts and made the eastern shore-based first congressional district, held by Republican Andy Harris, a district that Joe Biden would have narrowly won in the 2020 presidential election.
Democrats in the general assembly quickly released a new proposal the next week, this time abandoning their plans to target Harris and instead making compact-looking districts while giving their incumbents breathing room.
The second map passed the general assembly with only Democratic votes, Republicans citing it as still a partisan gerrymander. Despite protests by Republicans, Governor Hogan signed it into law, stating that it was a “huge improvement.”
The Republicans in the general assembly are correct that this new map still favors Democrats. However, the map has an efficiency gap of only D+2.4, as opposed to the previously enacted map’s D+16.
In the following section, I have described the new districts and who might run for them in the future.
District 1: Eastern Shore, Eastern Suburban Baltimore
In comparison to last decade’s first district, the new version lost northern Carroll County and parts of Cockeysville and Perry Hall in Baltimore County. It now includes all of Harford County, having previously only included the heavily Republican northern portion, and a sliver of Baltimore County running from the Chesapeake Bay in the south to the state line with Pennsylvania in the north. While Andy Harris’ home in Cockeysville is no longer in the district, there is no requirement that he must live in the district. Former State Delegate Heather Mizeur (D) and foreign policy strategist Dave Harden are running in the Democratic primary, but face long odds against Harris in a district that voted for Donald Trump by 14 percentage points. Safe Republican
Should Harris retire in a later cycle, Republicans have a plethora of potential candidates to replace him. Cecil County Executive Danielle Hornberger, a former Harris staffer, would likely get her former boss’s backing should she run, and might consolidate the Trumpian wing of the GOP. The Hogan wing of the Maryland GOP might push for Harford County Executive Barry Glassman, who briefly considered running against Harris last year. Glassman is currently running a long-shot bid for Maryland Comptroller, suggesting that he has future ambitions. An unsuccessful statewide run would boost his name recognition beyond Harford County, possibly giving him an edge in a primary where vote-rich Harford would be icing on the cake.
Other Republicans who could run in the first district are State Senator J. B. Jennings, State Senator Jason Gallion, State Senator Steve Hershey, State Senator Mary Beth Carozza, Delegate Lauren Arikan, Delegate Kevin Bailey Hornberger, Delegate Jeff Ghist, and Delegate Chris Adams.
Democrats are a bit strapped for options in this tough district, but Salisbury Mayor Jake Day has often been cited by party insiders as a rising star. His background as a member of the Maryland National Guard, president of the Maryland Municipal League, and supporting Larry Hogan for re-election in 2018 might give him enough credibility to run a competitive campaign in the decidedly Republican district. Lower shore Delegate Sheree Sample-Hughes might be another viable candidate, who could energize the district’s voters of color.
District 2: North Central
Rep. C.A. “Dutch” Ruppersberger’s (D-Cockeysville) district changed possibly the most of any district. Traditionally anchored northeast of Baltimore, the district became a more Baltimore County-centered district. The district might have been a tempting target for Republicans a decade ago, but suburban trends have likely pushed the district out of the competitive range. Safe Democratic
Ruppersberger, 76, has announced he is running for an 11th term, shutting down any rumors that he had decided to retire. Considering his age, however, he might decide to retire before the next cycle of redistricting. In terms of Democrats who could run to replace him, Baltimore County Executive John “Johnny” Olszewski lives just outside the district in Sparrows Point, might be very tempted to run, but may not clear the field. State Delegate Jon Cardin, a nephew of U.S. Senator Ben Cardin, who has been known to have higher ambitions, could run for the district without accusations of carpetbagging. More possibilities for Democrats include State Senator Shelly Hettleman, Delegate Michelle Guyton, Delegate Catherine “Cathi” Forbes, and attorney Robbie Leonard.
Republicans have a few viable options for the district. Delegate Kathy Szeliga, the Republican nominee in the 2016 U.S. Senate election, expressed an interest in running for the district before deciding to instead run for re-election. Baltimore County Councilman David Marks has held an increasingly Democratic district, giving him a credible argument that he can overcome the district’s partisan lean. Other potential candidates include State Senator Justin Ready, State Senator Johnny Ray Sailling, and State Delegate April Rose.
District 3: Central Maryland
Despite redistricting placing the home of Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Towson) almost 20 miles outside of his district, he should have relatively little trouble getting re-elected to the new third district. The district lost its infamous “broken-winged pterodactyl” shape and instead took in a swath of central Maryland going from Annapolis in the southeast to Mount Airy in the northwest and losing Baltimore City, which the district has covered in some part since at least the 1860s. Like the second district, the third district might have been somewhat competitive at the beginning of last decade, but has since trended hard to the left, likely making the candidate who wins the Democratic primary a lock for the general election. What is notable about the new district’s configuration is that it includes all of suburban Howard County, which has been divided into at least two congressional districts for the last couple decades. Once Sarbanes vacates the seat, there is a decent chance that Howard sends one of its own to congress for the first time since at least the 1930s. Safe Democratic
Sarbanes has long been floated as a statewide candidate, making it seem likely that he will vacate the district in the next decade, perhaps in 2024, when Senator Ben Cardin, who will be 81 years old on election day in 2024, may retire. Democrats have a very large bench of candidates from here they could replace him with, so it seems unlikely a candidate would clear the field. The most prominent name is Howard County Executive Calvin Ball, who is currently running for a second term. Annapolis-area State Senator Sarah Elfreth made news in December for reportedly objecting to having the first congressional district cover the city of Annapolis, implying that she did not want to face Harris should she decide to run for congress in the future. Some other notable Democrats from the district include Delegate Courtney Watson, Delegate Vanessa Atterbeary, Delegate Jessica Feldmark, Delegate Terri Hill, State Senator Clarence Lam, State Senator Guy Guzzone, Howard County State’s Attorney Rich Gibson, and former Anne Arundel County Executive Laura Neuman.
In terms of credible Republicans who could credibly run here, former Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman stands out, having won in very tough turf in 2014 and nearly winning re-election in 2018 amidst a Democratic wave. However, based on my first-hand knowledge of him, he does not sound like he would be interested in running for the house (Yes, I know my word alone might not sound credible enough. You’ll just have to take it from a guy who grew up with Kittleman as his state senator). Other Republicans who might have more interest in the race include former Anne Arundel County Executive Steve Schuh, Anne Arundel County Councilwoman Amanda Fiedler, and State Senator Bryan Simonaire.
District 4: Metro East
The majority-black fourth district dropped northern Anne Arundel county and picked up more of northwest Prince George’s County and a small sliver of Montgomery County containing Burtonsville. Rep. Anthony Brown is vacating this super-safe Democratic seat to run for Attorney General of Maryland, setting up a spirited Democratic primary. Safe Democratic
Former Rep. Donna Edwards, a progressive firebrand who represented different configurations of the district from 2009 to 2017, is attempting a comeback. Also running is former Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey, who ran a strong second place in the Democratic primary for the district in 2016.
District 5: Bowie, Southern Maryland
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer’s district retains its general configurations with a few notable changes. Most significantly, Hoyer’s district will not include the City of College Park, which he has represented since coming to congress in 1981. Despite his age and long tenure, Hoyer has continued to run for re-election, even as his district’s demographics look very different from the one he first won 41 years ago. The new fifth district has a bare 44 percent white plurality with an additional 43 percent of residents being black as of the 2020 census, indicating that whoever succeeds Hoyer when he vacates the district will likely be African-American. Progressive activist McKayla Wilkes, who held Hoyer to 64 percent of the vote in 2020, is running again, though is not getting as much attention this time. Whether or not Hoyer wins the primary this year, it does not appear likely he will be in the seat for much longer. Safe Democratic
Should the fifth district become vacant, Democrats would have no shortage of candidates to replace Hoyer. Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks would be a likely favorite in the race, should she run. Additional potential contenders include Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Aisha Braveboy, State Senator Michael Jackson, State Senator Ron Watson, State Senator Arthur Ellis, Delegate C.T. Wilson, and Delegate Rachel Jones.
District 6: Western DC Metro, Western Maryland
The center of over a decade of legal challenges, Maryland’s sixth district is back in the spotlight - this time as a battleground. Court-ordered redistricting made the district lose some strongly Democratic inner-ring suburbs of Washington D.C. in Montgomery County in exchange for Republican rural areas and exurbs in Frederick County, reducing Joe Biden’s winning margin in the district from 23 to 10 percentage points. On paper, this district might become competitive in a national environment that favors Republicans. Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), whose home was already outside of last decade’s iteration of the sixth district, is now even further away from the nearest boundary of the district. Trone can take some comfort in that he is personally wealthy and will have no shortage of resources, but he should not act like he is safe; in 2014, former Rep. John Delaney was nearly upset in a more Democratic-leaning version of the sixth district by Dan Bongino, who has since become a well-known bombastic right-wing radio host. The Republican establishment has largely consolidated behind former Washington Free Beacon journalist Matt Foldi, who is facing off against 2020 Republican nominee for the district, Delegate Neil Parrot. All that being considered, Trone should start out as favored, owing to the apparent Democratic-trending nature of the district and his ability to self-fund. Leans Democratic
The list of Democrats who could run for the district in the future includes Delegate David Fraser-Hidalgo, Delegate Lesley Lopez, Delegate Kiril Reznik, Delegate Gabriel Acevero, and Hagerstown Mayor Emily Keller.
Should she not win this year’s gubernatorial race, former Maryland Secretary of Commerce Kelly Shultz may be the best candidate Republicans could hope for to win the district; she used to represent a large swath of Frederick County in the House of Delegates, and would likely come out of the gubernatorial race with high name recognition, whether she wins the nomination or not. Republicans also have possible candidates in Frederick County State’s Attorney Charlie Smith, former Frederick County Board of Commissioners President Blaine Young, Delegate Jason Buckel, Delegate Jesse Pippy, and State Senator Michael Hough (should he lose this year’s Frederick County Executive race).
District 7: Baltimore
In his second stint in congress after a 24-year break, Kweisi Mfume has been uncontroversial since coming back in 2020 and should have no problem getting re-elected. Redistricting made the district considerably more centered on the city of Baltimore, dropping all of Howard County and northern Baltimore County.
When Mfume vacates the seat, possible candidates to replace him include State Senator Jill Carter, State Senator Antonio Hayes, State Senator Cory McCray, State Senator Mary Washington, Delegate Robbyn Lewis, and Delegate Stephanie Smith.
District 8: Eastern Montgomery
The new version of the 8th district became more centered on heavily Democratic eastern Montgomery County, having dropped rural sections of Carroll and Frederick Counties. Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin has become a visible national figure from his involvement in Donald Trump’s second impeachment, the widely-publicized death of his son to suicide, and his work on the January 6th select committee, and should hold the district for as long as he wants it.
Should the district become open, State Senator Will Smith, a Raskin protigé, might become the favorite to succeed him. Additionally, State Senator Susan Lee, Delegate Jheanelle Wilkins, and Delegate Emily Shetty might consider running.