Takeaways from the Maryland Republican Gubernatorial Primary
All politics are increasingly nationalized
It was not a good night for the already small anti-Trump wing of the Republican Party.
Trump-endorsed Delegate Dan Cox (R-Emmitsburg) has been projected to win the Republican nomination for Governor of Maryland. Cox has embraced the former President in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans two-to-one and Joe Biden carried by 33 percentage points in 2020.
Cox defeated outgoing popular Governor Larry Hogan’s handpicked successor, former Maryland Commerce Secretary Kelly Schulz (R-New Market), who attempted to win on Hogan’s coattails.
So how did we get here? You must be wondering “Why did Republican primary voters reject the choice of their popular governor of an overwhelmingly Democratic state?”
The answer is complicated, so I decided to make a list of reasons why I think Dan Cox won.
State and local politics are increasingly one and the same as national politics
As a Republican in Maryland, Larry Hogan’s path to success has been criticizing Donald Trump and avoiding divisive cultural issues such as abortion and vaccine mandates. The increasingly Trumpian Republican party now expects its elected officials to not deviate from the party, or else they are “sellouts” or “RINOs”. It was only a matter of time before drawing the extremely delicate balance of winning over Independents and some Democrats while holding onto Republicans who like Trumpian politics was no longer possible.
During the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, Hogan did not wield his power to stop Democratic-controlled jurisdictions from imposing mask and vaccine mandates, like other Republican governors around the country. Additionally, the recent Supreme Court case that overturned the landmark case Roe vs. Wade, Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, forced Kelly Schulz to go on record saying that she would not change Maryland’s abortion laws, likely an unpopular position among Republican primary voters.
Add in Hogan’s repeated criticisms of Trump, and you have a Republican electorate that is increasingly ripe for a Trump-like candidate.Kelly Schulz did not run a very good campaign, even with factors that were within her control
Despite massively outraising and outspending Cox, Schulz always lacked the same enthusiasm that Cox’s campaign had. She had reportedly been warned months prior to the primary that she was struggling in internal polling against Cox, but thought the best strategy was to not give him any attention. She only started to directly respond to Cox when the Democratic Governor’s Association ran TV ads saying that Cox was too close with Donald Trump, a scheme intended to boost Cox’s numbers with Republican voters.
The Maryland Republican electorate has been thoroughly Trumpified
Maryland has closed primaries, meaning that only registered Republicans can vote in Republican primaries. Over the last decade or so, Republicans have been losing registered voters in most of Maryland’s populous highly-educated localities while gaining in rural white areas. Combine the two factors, and it becomes easier to understand why the Maryland Republican primary electorate is more Trump-friendly than other states that have had primaries in recent months, such as Georgia.
To those on the right who are confused, I hope that this provides some clarity. Thank you again for reading!
Kelly was led astray by being told by the same idiots that ran Hogan 2018 that she had this in the bag and didn’t need to campaign. Dan Cox was able to capitalize on the opening this created. DGA are hypocrites but they never would have gotten involved if Kelly had used her resource advantage to establish a sizable polling lead.