2022 Elections in Maryland, Part 2: Turnout Dynamics
While Democratic wins were never in doubt, a predicted Republican surge did not materialize
Note: Before I go into the analysis, I want to apologize for the long break in posts. Shortly after the election, I contracted a case of covid-19 which impaired my cognitive abilities, and symptoms continued even after I tested negative. I will try to put out articles more regularly from now on.
With the dust mostly cleared from the midterms, the election results in Maryland were largely predictable. While I will not go into every aspect of the election in this installment, I thought a good place to start would be to look at turnout across the state.
Although turnout was not as impressive as 2018, it was still nothing to scoff at. That being said, there were turnout decreases in all but two counties.
Turnout drops were particularly pronounced in counties with high nonwhite populations, including the geographic cores of the Maryland Democratic Party: Baltimore City, Montgomery, and Prince George’s. Although decreases in nonwhite turnout is not unusual in midterm years with a Democrat in the White House, the fact that it still happened even though the Democratic nominees for Governor and Attorney General were black should serve as a cautionary tale for Democrats; running non-white candidates alone does not necessarily help with nonwhite voter enthusiasm. Other steps including organization and outreach are required to achieve such a goal.
The registered partisan share of the electorate in each locality tells a fascinating story:
Most notable here is that for the first time in recent memory, more registered Democrats voted in Frederick County than Republicans in a midterm election, an indication of Frederick’s continued move towards the Democrats over the last decade.
Drops in Democratic share of the electorate were particularly pronounced in the counties that make up the lower shore. While some of the drop is likely continued party switching of conservative white Democrats to the Republican party, a look at the region’s majority-black precincts reveals that turnout among black voters was down.
Overall, the partisan shift between midterms looks similar to party registration trends; Democrats gaining in central Maryland between Baltimore and Washington D.C. and Republicans gaining in smaller counties.
In conclusion, here is what I think the two parties can be hopeful about and what they can learn from this data:
Democrats
Maryland Democrats have a major opportunity to reach out to voters beyond their traditional strongholds in central Maryland. Talbot County on the mid-shore has seen an influx of Democratic-leaning commuters seeking less dense and cheaper living. Additionally, the kind of voter who is moving here tend to be among the most reliable; Talbot had the highest turnout rate in the state. Democrats gained a seat on the Talbot County Council in the midterms, narrowing the Republican majority to a single seat. In the longer-term, Democrats could look to making inroads at the local level in Carroll County; the partisan share of the electorate shifted slightly in their favor, and candidates running statewide have made significant gains in the Eldersburg and Westminster areas.
An area in which Democrats could do better is among voters of color. As stated earlier, running diverse candidates statewide did not translate to energizing voters of color. I cannot know what exactly went wrong in this regard, though the correct outreach is also very important to turning out these voters.
Republicans
Despite problemative nominees for Governor and Attorney General, things could have gotten worse for Maryland Republicans. They held onto suburban districts at the local and state level for County Council and House of Delegates that were giving upballots Democrats comfortable margins, giving them some reassurance that voters are still willing to split their tickets when a candidate demonstrates independence from the top of the ticket. Republicans also flipped the Dorchester County Council and the Somerset County Board of Commissioners, bodies that Democrats had little to no business holding majorities on, based on partisanship.
The largest challenge Maryland Republicans now face is nominating a candidate who is electable statewide, or at least non-offensive, in a primary. Maryland voters have shown a willingness to elect a Republican governor when they feel that Democrats have overstepped, such as in 2014, but only if the Republican avoids divisive cultural issues that are unpopular with Maryland voters. Only time will tell if Republicans are willing to pick a nominee who they might not see eye-to-eye with on those issues in order to win.