Final Calls on Maryland Elections in 2022
Democrats probably lucked out when Republicans nominated weak candidates for top offices
Governor: Wes Moore (D)
Holding the governorship was always going to be an uphill climb, even if Republicans had nominated former Maryland Secretary of Commerce Kelly Schultz. Wes Moore, the former Robin Hood CEO and Army veteran has proven to be a candidate who quickly united Democrats. Some observers are already talking up Moore as a national figure. With his strong campaign and his opponent, Trump-backed Dan Cox being a decidedly poor fit for heavily Democratic Maryland, Moore is a heavy favorite to win. What is more in question is if he will help other Democrats down the ballot. Moore would be the first African-American governor of Maryland and only the third in the country.
Comptroller: Brooke Lierman (D)
Brooke Lierman began consolidating party support from the time she announced her candidacy in December 2020, and decisively won the primary. Her opponent, Harford County Executive Barry Glassman, was likely the best nominee Republicans put forward for the office in a generation, and will likely be the best-performing Republican statewide this cycle. However, Lierman being a strong candidate herself, Maryland’s deep blue lean, and problematic Republican nominees for Governor and Attorney General is likely a bridge too far for Glassman. Assuming that she wins, she would be the first woman elected in her own right to one of Maryland’s three statewide offices, and only the second woman elected statewide, after former U.S. Senator Barbara Mikulski (D).
Attorney General: Anthony Brown (D)
While he did not run the most visible statewide campaign, congressman Anthony Brown is a strong favorite to become the first African American Attorney General of Maryland. After losing the 2014 Governor’s race, Brown successfully ran for the Prince George’s County-centered fourth congressional district in 2016, redeeming himself in the eyes of some Democrats. On the campaign trail this year, Brown has kept upbeat, not talking much about his Republican opponent, former Anne Arundel County Councilman Michael Peroutka, who has ties to white supremacist groups and has pledged to challenge Maryland’s abortion laws in court if elected.
State Senate: 33 Democrats, 14 Republicans (D+1)
Redistricting largely protected incumbents, though it made the Anne Arundel County-based 33rd district, which already saw a significant shift toward Democrats in the last 6 years, slightly more favorable to them. The new version of the district gave Joe Biden a spread of 58 to 39 percent in the 2020 presidential election. Longtime Republican state legislator Ed Reilly decided to retire after one of the districts delegates, Republican Sid Saab, entered the primary. Although Saab has emphasized issues like access to mental health services on the campaign trail, he has downplayed votes that may put him to the right of the residents of the district, such as sponsoring a 20-week abortion ban. Democratic nominee Dawn Gile, an attorney and leader of a nonprofit that assists military spouses, has been highly touted by leading Democrats in the state.
There are several factors working in Gile’s favor. It is increasingly rare for candidates for state legislative districts to win in districts which voted for the opposing party’s presidential nominee by as much as Biden carried it. An open seat with no incumbent is harder to defend than one with an incumbent as well. Gile, being a political newcomer, does not have a voting record for Republicans to attack, while Saab does. Add on the fact that Wes Moore is very likely to carry the district, perhaps by a significant margin, and the odds for Gile seem very promising. While Saab is a solid candidate himself and the national environment might favor Republicans, the fundamentals appear to be too much for him to overcome. Leans Democratic (pickup)
In the adjacent 30th district, Democratic Senator Sarah Elfreth is seeking re-election. The district, which includes Annapolis and southern Anne Arundel, has traditionally been a swing district. However, it has shown signs of drifting more firmly into the Democratic column; it voted very similarly to the 33rd district in the 2020 presidential election, 58 to 39 percent. Regardless of favorable trend, Elfreth has established herself as one of the hardest working legislators in Annapolis in her first term, focusing on conservation in a district that is particularly environmentally conscious. She faces Republican Stacie MacDonald, a self-funding businesswoman and conservative activist who ran for the house of delegates from the 33rd district in 2018. Leans Democratic
To the northeast in Harford County, former delegate Mary Dulaney-James (D) and Christian Miele (R) are facing off to succeed Senator Bob Cassilly, who is a heavy favorite to win the Harford County Executive race. While Joe Biden carried this district 53 to 44 percent, Dulaney-James may not be the strongest candidate that Democrats could have nominated; this is her third run in a row, after a double-digit loss in 2014 and a narrow loss in 2018. Miele is not without some baggage; he represented the Baltimore County-based 8th district in the house of delegates and unsuccessfully ran for the senate seat there in 2018. Democrats have attempted to label him a carpetbagger. It feels that the fundamentals will ultimately favor Miele, though he is probably not an overwhelming favorite, and Dulaney-James could still ride Wes Moore’s coattails to pull off a win. Leans Republican
Over in the 9th senate district in western Howard County and northern Montgomery, Senator Katie Fry Hester is running for a second term against appointed delegate Reid Novotny. In redistricting, the 9th district shed its Republican-leaning Carroll County precincts in exchange for Democratic-leaning precincts in Montgomery County, making the district more Democratic-leaning overall. The district as drawn likely would have been competitive around a decade ago, though it gave Joe Biden a margin of 63 to 35 percent. While Republicans have made this race a top priority, it would be a shock for an uncontroversial Democratic incumbent to lose in a district where Biden won by that much. Likely Democratic
Some honorable mentions in terms of senate races are the 8th, 37th, and 38th districts, which have been competitive in recent cycles, though the incumbent party in each should be pretty safe.
State House: 101 Democrats, 40 Republicans (D+2)
Due to Maryland’s system of having an assortment of multi and single-member state house districts, it can be particularly difficult to predict races. It appears likely that Democrats have at least two automatic pickups due to redistricting in districts 9A and 33A, and possibly another four in districts 2B, 8, 9A, and 33B. In terms of vulnerable Democratic-held seats, districts 12B, 29B, and 34A are potential Republican pickups, with the open 12B seeming like their most plausible gain. All of these gave Biden double-digit margins, however, so they will most likely stay in Democratic hands. Democrats might very well pick up more than two seats, but because the system is difficult to handicap, I am picking a conservative estimate on what might happen.
Anne Arundel County Executive: Steuart Pittman (D)
After winning in an upset in 2018, the career horse farmer has made a name for himself as a progressive deeply focused on local issues such as conservation, improving roads, and opposing new landfills. Republicans have nominated county councilwoman Jessica Haire, wife of state party chair Dirk Haire, who has critiqued Pittman as a reckless spender and too left-wing for Anne Arundel. The race appeared to be a tossup following the primary, though Pittman seems to have gained a consistent edge in the lead-up to election day; recent Baltimore Sun poll had Pittman up 48 to 40 percent over Haire. I do not expect Pittman to win by that much, though being close to 50 percent is a promising sign for him. Leans Democratic
Frederick County Executive: Michael Hough (R)
Although Frederick County has shown signs of trending Democratic in recent years, trends do not always happen in a straight line. Senator Michael Hough has run a campaign focused on limiting development in the fast-growing county, saying that he wants to stop Frederick County from becoming “Montgomery County North.” While he won his primary unopposed, eventual Democratic nominee Jessica Fitzwater, a county councilwoman, was forced to use resources to fend off county councilman Kai Hagen in a primary, allowing Hough time to raise money and define himself early on. While there has not been any public polling, I give Hough the edge due to a disciplined message and his early advantages. Leans Republican
Howard County Executive: Calvin Ball (D)
If any Republican could still make Howard County competitive, it would have been former County Executive Allan Kittleman. He’s been in county politics for over 30 years and managed to defy the odds in a county that has gotten increasingly more Democratic. It was not until he lost in an upset to County Councilman Calvin Ball in 2018 that political gravity finally reached him, and even in defeat, he only lost by about 6 percent. When he announced his run to reclaim his old job, I was skeptical that he could win, even in an environment favorable to Republicans. I maintain that skepticism today. Kittleman has run a particularly negative campaign against Ball, claiming that crime has gone up under his administration and denouncing him for taking donations from developers. Ball has mostly run on his pandemic-era record and creating a flood control project for Old Ellicott City, though has not shied away from taking swipes at Kittleman. While Ball might not win by a particularly wide margin, I find it difficult to see Kittleman pulling it off in a Howard County that has only gotten more Democratic since 2018. Likely Democratic
Wicomico County Executive: Julie Giordano (R)
After teacher Julie Giordano upset appointed County Executive John Psota in the primary, it appeared there might be an opening for a Democrat to win, given that Giordano has close ties to Dan Cox and Donald Trump. However, Democratic nominee Ernest Davis, a county councilman, prides himself on saying little. In a county that Trump narrowly carried in 2020, Giordano should be the favorite. Leans Republican
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